North West business activity continues to rise but rate of growth slows downs another notch

FIRMS in the North West recorded a 5th consecutive monthly rise in business activity in June, albeit with the rate of growth easing to the slowest since March amid a drop in inflows of new work, the latest NatWest UK Regional PMI� survey showed. Still, businesses grew more optimistic about the outlook and continued to take on additional staff. Although still historically high, price pressures showed signs of easing as rates of input cost and output price inflation fell to their lowest since early-2021.

The headline North West PMI Business Activity Index; a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the Region's manufacturing and service sectors; registered above the critical 50.0 mark for a fifth successive month in June. At 52.0, the index indicated a moderate rate of growth, but one that was slightly slower than in May (52.3) and below the national average (52.8). At the sector level, expansion in the service sector continued to be partially offset by falling manufacturing production.

Latest data signalled a second straight monthly decline in inflows of new work across the North West, indicating a sustained softening of demand faced by the Region's businesses. Furthermore, the rate of decline accelerated and was the second-fastest nationally after than seen in the North East. The result was driven by a deepening downturn in manufacturing new orders, although local services providers also reported a slight drop in demand.

After having dipped to a five-month low in May, business expectations among firms in the North West rebounded in June. Confidence moved back above the national average and was even slightly higher than the historical series trend (since July 2012). Businesses anticipating a rise in activity in the coming year commented on plans for new products and greater marketing, alongside hopes of a general upturn in demand.

June saw a further rise in workforce numbers across the North West private sector, thereby extending the current sequence of uninterrupted job creation that stretches back to March 2021. Although still only moderate, the rate of employment growth picked up slightly and was the second-quickest over the past nine months.

A rise in service sector staffing levels contrasted with further job losses in manufacturing, underlying data showed.

Firms in the North West recorded a sharp and accelerated decline in backlogs of work in June. The rate of depletion reached the quickest for almost a year and was noticeably faster than the average for the UK as a whole. Where a reduction in outstanding business was recorded, this was generally linked to a lack of incoming new work to replace completed projects.

After ticking up in May for the 1st time in 12 months, the rate of input cost inflation faced by firms in the North West resumed its slowing trend in June. The respective seasonally adjusted index slipped to its lowest since November 2020. Reports from surveyed businesses highlighted the influence of falling material prices, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

Overall, however, cost pressures were still historically strong (the index remained firmly above its pre-pandemic average), which was due in large part to rising wages.

In line with the trend in business costs, latest data showed a slower; albeit still sharp; rise in average prices charged by firms in the North West. The rate of inflation was the lowest for 2� years and below the national average by the biggest margin so far this year. Higher output prices were largely confined to the service sector, underlying data showed.

Malcolm Buchanan, Chair of NatWest North Regional Board, commented:- "The North West economy continued to tick along in June, registering a 5th straight monthly rise in business activity. A weakening of growth and back-to-back falls in new business are somewhat of a concern, but business confidence did pick up in June to suggest that firms view any slowdown as only temporary. Indeed, a steady rise in employment points to the fact that businesses are still willing to hire in the current environment. Although inflation remains high, we're seeing things on this front improve as the rates of increase in firms' input costs and output prices slow, dropping to their lowest since early 2021 in June."

Merseyside's Police Commissioner:- "My goal is to keep more young people safe and engaged this summer"

MERSEYSIDE'S Police Commissioner has said her goal is to:- "keep more young people safe and engaged this summer" as she announces the 23 projects which will share a total of �100,000 from her Youth Diversion Fund.

More than 2,500 young people are set to benefit from safe, positive activities running across the Region during the 6 week School break, thanks to grants from the latest round of Emily Spurrell's funding pot.

This is the second summer, the Police Commissioner has run the Youth Diversion Fund, which is designed to give young people, particularly from deprived areas more opportunities during the School break when they may have little to do, while helping to prevent crime and anti-social behaviour which can spike when Schools close.

The funding has been shared among 8 grassroots community groups in Liverpool, 5 in Sefton, 4 successful organisations in Knowsley, and Wirral, and 2 from St Helens. Many of the organisations will also provide meals for the young people to ensure they are not going without during the School holidays.

Innovative projects including:- Beautiful New Beginnings who will use nearly �5,000 of funding to run 6 weeks of forest School activities for 100 children with additional needs, Blue River Support Services Cycle of Life who will offer bike maintenance and skills for young people form Toxteth and the L20 Hub who will offer art and craft sessions for 220 young people in Sefton, getting them involved in tidying up the area and creating a mural with a local artist.

Merseyside's Police Commissioner Emily Spurrell said:- "From survival skills to virtual reality gaming and badminton to boxing, my Youth Diversion Fund is going to fund a treasure trove of activities for young people this summer. My goal is to keep more young people safe and engaged in positive activities this summer, giving them the chance to try new experiences, learn extra skills and gain in confidence and self-esteem. We know the vast majority of young people who get involved in crime and ASB are bored and fed up. They want to do something positive with their time, but after years of austerity there is often very little to do in their areas and their families may not be able to afford holidays or expensive summer clubs. By offering them more exciting and interesting opportunities, we can prevent them from ever going down the path, broadening their horizons and giving them vital life skills. This has the great knock on effect of reducing the pressure on the Police, reducing the number of victims and making our communities safer, nicer places to live."

A total of 112 applications requesting a total of nearly �450,000 were submitted for this round of funding; the most ever received by the Police Commissioner.

By working closely with her community safety partners, Emily was able to allocate the funding to 23 fantastic grassroots projects which are best placed to provide support for young people across the Region.

The Youth Diversion Fund is administered by the Community Foundation for Merseyside, (CFM) on behalf of the Commissioner. CFM holds funds from individuals and organisations as donors who wish to support deserving causes in Merseyside.

CFM's Programmes Director James Proctor said:- "The Merseyside Police and Crime Commissioner's Youth Diversion Fund is a fantastic funding opportunity to support our local grassroots community organisations and their engagement work with young people. It is so important to recognise the valuable community projects on offer over the summer School holidays which allow young people to get involved in sporting, cultural, educational and crucially, fun activities which keeps them safe and helps to reduce instances of anti-social behaviour."

The successful organisations are as follows:-

Knowsley- 4 projects totalling �17,472 to benefit 530 young people:-
Liverpool; 8 projects totalling:- �34,840 for 550 young people:-
Sefton; 5 projects totalling �20,272.82 for 600 young people:-

Wirral; 4 projects totalling �18,392 for 740 young people:-

Byrne Avenue Trust - �4,542 to provide exciting activities 4 evenings per week throughout the summer holidays, including:- "Have a Go" sessions, sports tournaments and arts and crafts for 50 young people aged 11-16 in Rock Ferry.

Our Happy Hub - �4,300 to run creative and holistic sessions, including:- art therapy and reiki, for 350 children and young people in the Noctorum area.

The Belvidere Centre - �4,550 to facilitate sporting activities such as climbing, golfing and cycling in partnership with Wallasey's Detached Youth Work Team, and between three local youth centres. The sessions will be available to 300 children and young people and will operate in and around Wallasey.

Women's Enterprising Breakthrough - �5,000 to host weekly group sessions in Birkenhead for young people aged between 9 and 18, delivering a wide range of activities including:- football, arts and crafts, photography and more.